So here’s a really simple trade that you
can do that I enjoy doing and is easy to understand and has a definable payoff
and risk and what we’re going to do here is we’re looking at the France we
Germany World Cup match and we’re going to use the stake of ten pound if I’ve
talked you through the settings we’re going to use up here as well I’m going
to have force open set to none going to unpick fill or kill and we’re going to
do offset bet with greening and we’re also going to modify the offset tick
percentage tick value in a second and what we’re going to do to work out what
that is going to be is we’re going to use soccer mystic so if I click on the
football here soccer mystic pops up that’s only available on football
matches fairly obviously and what you can see on here is we’ve gone to the
over/under probability chart and I have deselected displaying 3d deselected
probability chart I’ve selected soccer mystic profit line as unders and I’ve
selected the visible data line as under and the target number of two goals is
two-and-a-half goals so what this is doing is it’s plotting where it thinks
the odds will be at any given moment so if we want this position to remain open
for ten minutes then we can look at ten minutes and this will say that the odds
will be about one fifty nine after ten minutes if you want to use the scenario
indicator you can do so here and what the scenario indicator will allow you to
do this in a less visual form so I I’m on the over-and-under turn off goal
market I have a back bet matched on on to turn off goals at odds of 175 for the
stake of 10 pound what are the predicted odds 10 minutes from now so you can see
here this is basically saying you’ll make one pound sixty nine profit on your
10 pound within 10 minutes specify your on or around ten minutes and the reason
this would occur is if there’s no goal within this particular match then the
odds on under turn off girl we’ll come in and come in and come in
which is what you can see on this graph here so the reason that happens is
because under turn half girls is getting more and more certain as the match goes
on so you can see the odds come down come down come down come down and so on
and so forth until they expire at zero now the risk that you’re taking here is
you know will o be a goal what you’re saying with this trade is will a big
goal in ten minutes will it go beyond twenty and thirty and forty or fifty
minutes and if there’s a goal before then so say we’re going to pitch this at
the 10-minute interval say there’s a goal within the first five minutes the
handy thing about soccer mystic is it will actually tell you and what you need
to do to become profitable again so you can see the odds go rocketing out on
under two and a half goals and then they start to come back in again so if we
look at where the line crosses where the blue line crosses you can see you’re
going to have to hold your position until about thirty six minutes or
thereabouts so what this is saying to you is here’s the profitable scenario
this is what could go wrong and therefore you have to decide when that
goal goes in do you sit in wait after 33 minutes is it an open game when is it
flowing and you know there could be another goal very very quickly or are we
in the situation where it doesn’t look like a goal is going to be scored very
soon and therefore you can sit back and relax and just wait for the odds to come
back down to meet you if there’s a second goal within that period then
obviously that changes your expectations again so you know you can use the
modeling to give you a rough idea it can never be a 100% accurate because it
obviously can’t tell what’s going to happen within the game and how the
game’s going to play out but nonetheless it gives you an idea of the sort of
strategy that you could deploy so what we’re going to say here we’re starting
at 175 so if I go in and I say offset by 10 that will be 164 so if I go in and
offset by 15 I will get us more or less where we want to go force open sets none
stay cassettes ten-pound if I click here better angel will place the back man in
fact this here was stopping me from placing the bet so I’ve just done tick
that if I click here that will place the bag bet but angel will offset it at 149
we will keep the bet and that trade is now underway so the match is underway
now and you can see the score is still nil nil and the time elapsed is seven
minutes we were expecting a tight match where perhaps you know it wouldn’t be as
open and as many goals as you know when you get to the stage of the tournament
people don’t want to lose and so they’re going to play around a bit first maybe
get a lucky break but they just don’t want to consider no two guards they’re
probably playing defensively that’s pretty much what’s happened so we’re
eight minutes in and what you can see is that actually we’ve got an equal profit
on both the over and under two and a half gone market and if you look in bet
angel you can see that we placed the bank better 174 bet angel up set it to
159 and the result of that is that we are now all green so from this
particular stage you can see we’ve cashed out from a pound and we can do
whatever we want with that money we could basically back or layer either
either of these selections to put the money back through the market and do
something clever again or we could just do nothing and walk away from this
market and start focusing on another one but they go this quick example of
trading under two and a half goals if you’re interested in learning more about
bet angel it’s tools and the opportunities they present one will
visit betangel comm today to download a free trial

Betfair football – Trading under 2.5 goals explained
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